The Art of the Long View 前瞻的艺术——不确定世界的规划 pdf 在线 2025 epub 免费 书籍 下载

What increasingly affects a11 0f US，whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a beffer future，is nof the tangibles of Iife-bottom-line numbers，for insfance-buf the intangibles：our hopes and fears，our beliefs and dreams．Only stories-scenarios-and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles．

In The Arf oF me Long View，now for the fi rsf time in paperback and with the addition of an a11．new User’S Guide，Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric"approach f giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within you r business．

Prefaca

Introduction to the Paperback Edition：

The Strategic Conversation--Broadening

The Long View

The Pathfinder’S Tale

The Smith&Hawken Story：

The Process of Scenario—Building

The Scenario—Building Animal

Uncovering the Decision

Information-·Hunting and··Gathering

Creating Scenario Building Blocks

Anatomy of a New Driving Force：

The Global Teenager

Composing a Plot

The World in 2005：Three Scenarios

Rehearsing the Future

Epilogue：To My Newborn Son

Afterword：The Value of a Strategic

ConversatiOn

User’S Guide：HOW to Hold a

Strategic Conversation

Appendix：Steps to Developing Scenarios

Endnotes

Scenario Planning：Select Biography

Index

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书籍介绍

"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but--better--that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartza s book." --Stewart Brand What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life--bottom--line numbers, for instance--but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories--scenarios--and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all--new Usera s Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the worlda s leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.